nfl roundup

43-33-1 going in... and now... 10-6 before MNF to make 53-39-1. Not bad. Not bad at all. Would have never taken Oakland so I don't feel bad about that strange result. Panthers and Titans let me down but whatever, and the Hawks barely defended to fuck me over. San Diego continues to barely dissapoint and KC let me down against the monster Bills so I can't feel too bad about that strange matchup. Other than that a succesful week. 

• Add 1 Win for Monday Night. Never trust the Bills. Looked AWFUL and almost still won.
• Pit -10.5 vs. Cinci - Thanksgiving -1 week special. Strange that Pitt suddenly looks almost mediocre. But you can't argue that their D is tough like crazy tough. If the game is fixed like last week what can you do. I picked em. It cost me. Fuck it.
• Houston +3 @ Cleveland - I can't tell if it's the Texans, Colts, Browns or whoever that's two-faced. Well the Colts have to be. And the Browns just suck...
• KC +3 vs. Buff - KC is alive. The Bills are bad bad news. 
• Ten -4.5 vs. Jets. Very interesting matchup here. Jets look better than they really are lately though while the Titans continue to prove they are rock fucking solid.
• Pats +2 @ Miami - not even Cedric Cobbs will stop Bellicek her in a revenge game for the meanest coach in sport.
• Dallas -10.5 vs. SF - even though i honestly believe SF's offense is better than the Skins'
• Tampa -8.5 @ Detroit - dont like this one. D Cullpep is one of the daftest but also wiliest QBs out theya.
• Baltimore -1.5 vs Philly - like this one
• Chi -8.5 @ STL - I have no clue here. Bears could be one of the worst teams after all but I guess STL gave up.
• Minny +2.5 @ Jax - After last week Jax might roll over. They aint makin the playoffs...
• Carolina +1 @ Atl - coming into last week I would have taken Atlanta. Despite Carolina being really shitty actually I don't think ATL is really all we thought it was for a few weeks. Denver? At home? Come on. 
• Denver -9.5 vs. Oakland - duh.
• Wash -3.5 @ Seattle. The battle of Seattle.... Washington that is. You know, I doubt Zorn will call plays that allow the horrid Camble and the super overrated Camble to even score 4 pts. But if they have to win 4-0 they will. 
• Giants -3 @ Az - Giants have been to this stadium before right?
• San Diego -2.5 vs. Colts. Fuck the Colts. I hope they miss the playoffs along with the Pats.
• NO -2.5 vs. GB. 

And now...

• Tennesee -11 @ Detroit - Nothing like Detroit's horrendous, porous D to make Tennessee's offense look more than viable again. That reminds me, start Brandon Jones this week in fantasy. 
• Hawks +13 @ Dallas - just don't think Dallas is that good. We'll see. We'll see. Could switch this later in the week. 
• Cards +3 @ Eagles - don't think the Eagles have much of a chance here. I have been doing good betting against them. How are they ATS this year... Hmm actually they are 6-3-1 and the Cards are 3-6-1. Still like the Cards here.
• Ravens -7 @ Bengals
• Colts -4.5 @ Browns - wo hold on here. I just picked 5 road teams in a row?
• Bills -7 vs 9ers - wow this is a tough line to handicap. Maybe ill switch this to 9ers later too. 

• Chargers -5 vs. Falcons - another toughee
• Chiefs +3 @ Oakland
• Pats -1 vs. Steelers
• Jets -7.5 vs. Broncs
• Vikes -3.5 vs. Bears

More to come later. Had to jot first impressions down.

College Slaughterhouse

A deplorable 7-12 to head to 50-58 aka monkey-drawing-picks-out-of-hat territory. Did you see these crazy results though? Maryland getting squahsed? NC getting squashed? Notre Dame getting squashed? Texas Tech getting absolutely squashed, smooshed and demolished. Just wow. 

• GTech -3 vs. Miami - Note: this embellishment was written while my pick was Miami +3. If this deplorable squad (Miami) squanders the op. that's been given them in the whacky ACC, shame on them. Two thursday night games in a row. Looking to repeat against V Tech. V Tech tried to come back but I felt Miami won fair and square, no funny business. If this deplorable squad squanders this op. I'll say this: a new award will be created on this space. It will be called, (and yes I did have to look his name up though I recognized it of course), the Randy Shannon shitbag memorial trophy of the week.  Seriously I lose every fucking ACC game I ever pick, almost literally. G Tech looked like shit against Carolina. Miami is coming up. You know what? I am terrible at the ACC. I pick G Tech. Miami has a proud history of coaches. Larry Coker, Dennis E., Jimmy J., Butch D f/ghost of Cleveland Dogs, etc.  Randy Shannon wins the ACC this year or has a new award named after him, one he doesn't want. Frank Beemer's huge goiter-esque thingy looks on salivating. Maryland's huge fat coach is on point now though. 
• Pitt +5 @ Cinci - I haven't watched but a bit of the Big East all year. I just feel like I will never trust the Bearcats. I sure as shit don't want to see them in a BCS bowl. One thing that would fix the BCC, end auto-conference associations except for the rose bowl. That way the horrid ACC and horrid Big East can just take the Orange Bowl to themselves, or the fucking Fiesta for all I care. 
• Boston College +1.5 @ Wake - in the tradition of getting raped in the ACC, Im taking BC here cause I wanted to take Wake. 
• Indiana +12.5 @ Purdue - in a game sure to be featured on the Big Ten Network's 2nd alternate channel @ noon Eastern on DirecTv, I have NO clue. Indiana I guess. 
• Ohio St. -20.5 vs. Big Michigan. I love this pick. I think it will be an ugly blowout by at least 35. 
• Duke +17 @ V Tech - Duke failed to defend a monster spread @ pitiful Clemson this week but I dont think Beemer's goiter-esque neck thingy is capable of scoring enough to cover here. 
• Maryland -1.5 vs. FSU - have you seen Maryland's ground game? Impressive. 
• NC -11 vs. NCSU
• KSU -10 vs. Ames' Boys in the Big XII North
• Vandy -3 vs. Vols
• Miss St. Pick Em vs. Arkansas
• Notre Dame -19.5 vs. Syracuse. Yes Im picking ND to cover 20 pts! Hard to believe.
• UW -7.5 @ Wazzu - the saddest Apple Cup EVER!? Undoubtedly. Tyronne Willinghams last game thank christ. 
• TTech +7 @ OU!?!?!?! Really? REALLY?! 7 Pts!? No fucking way. Im honestly shocked at this line.
• Spartans +14.5 @ Penn St. REALLYY?!?!?!?!? No fucking way. Im honestly surprised. 
• Virginia +2.5 vs Clemson
• Stanford +9 @ Cal - the Big Game should be good this year
• Utah -6.5 vs. BYU - Go Utes. Fuck BYU - worst college in the country. 
• Oregon St. +3 @ Arizona - this is for the Rose Bowl Kids. They are not going to fuck up in Tucson.

Predictions Galore and NCAAB begins

NCAA basketball. You gotta love it. A bettor's feast. A TV-viewing treat 3-5 days a week. I don't have FSN NW this year to follow my ham-bacon and eggs biscuit staple Pac 10, featuring a can-ham feast, but I'm now in the heart of ACC country and the Big East will be in the mix here I'm sure too. In any case it's just too early to bet on games now with any regularity. If I did bet, (and I don't bet anyway...), it would be targeted exploit matchups but I'm not ready to start my running count. In any case let's watch some games, (there on all day today on ESPN), and start getting ready to bet in a few weeks. Really though it won't be until conference play begins that betting action heats up. That's not til after the new year right? Maybe not that long... One random note: why is the Great Alaska shootout so devoid of teams this year? Really went downhill.  

On a sad note this is the last regular week of College Football. Bowl games are a bettors favorite time of year, and we still have the conference championship games, but this is it for big time spread action like a huge hoagie with canned ham, canned meat and several eggs. No, I would not fuck Dana Jacobson, co-host of ESPN2 space-filler "First Take." Now eat some ham, but don't let it end in a tie? What you say? It can't end in a tie. At least I didn't know it could. Are we really making more out of this than we should? I don't think so.  It probably wouldn't really matter but think of this. Risk throwing an INT? Risk throwing a random long ball? Risk well.... yeah I don't think it does matter actually. I mean when would you consciously say, for example, 'I'm not going to attempt this pass because It's too risky, could be returned for a TD, and rather than that I'll take another 50/50 shot in the next OT.' That wouldn't happen. Because any play that McNabb might have acted differently on still would not have exposed him to as much risk as losing the coinflip in the next OT. And as it was the game didn't end in such a fashion. And as it was the bottom line is we just think McNabb is stupid. Which he is I guess. But in pracitce it didn't matter. Now go eat some fucking soup Douchnab McNugget. Chunky! 

Alright I'm going to try and reason these out more than I normally do. Probably a bad thing. Go with the gut, since the gut is usually right for me since I've had years to internalize my maxims when it comes to betting... right... like a hotdog is right without mayonaise on it fuckos. 

• GTech -3 vs. Miami - Note: this embellishment was written while my pick was Miami +3. If this deplorable squad (Miami) squanders the op. that's been given them in the whacky ACC, shame on them. Two thursday night games in a row. Looking to repeat against V Tech. V Tech tried to come back but I felt Miami won fair and square, no funny business. If this deplorable squad squanders this op. I'll say this: a new award will be created on this space. It will be called, (and yes I did have to look his name up though I recognized it of course), the Randy Shannon shitbag memorial trophy of the week.  Seriously I lose every fucking ACC game I ever pick, almost literally. G Tech looked like shit against Carolina. Miami is coming up. You know what? I am terrible at the ACC. I pick G Tech. Miami has a proud history of coaches. Larry Coker, Dennis E., Jimmy J., Butch D f/ghost of Cleveland Dogs, etc.  Randy Shannon wins the ACC this year or has a new award named after him, one he doesn't want. Frank Beemer's huge goiter-esque thingy looks on salivating. Maryland's huge fat coach is on point now though. 
• Pitt +5 @ Cinci - I haven't watched but a bit of the Big East all year. I just feel like I will never trust the Bearcats. I sure as shit don't want to see them in a BCS bowl. One thing that would fix the BCC, end auto-conference associations except for the rose bowl. That way the horrid ACC and horrid Big East can just take the Orange Bowl to themselves, or the fucking Fiesta for all I care. 
• Boston College +1.5 @ Wake - in the tradition of getting raped in the ACC, Im taking BC here cause I wanted to take Wake. 
• Indiana +12.5 @ Purdue - in a game sure to be featured on the Big Ten Network's 2nd alternate channel @ noon Eastern on DirecTv, I have NO clue. Indiana I guess. 
• Ohio St. -20.5 vs. Big Michigan. I love this pick. I think it will be an ugly blowout by at least 35. 
• Duke +17 @ V Tech - Duke failed to defend a monster spread @ pitiful Clemson this week but I dont think Beemer's goiter-esque neck thingy is capable of scoring enough to cover here. 
• Maryland -1.5 vs. FSU - have you seen Maryland's ground game? Impressive. 
• NC -11 vs. NCSU
• KSU -10 vs. Ames' Boys in the Big XII North
• Vandy -3 vs. Vols
• Miss St. Pick Em vs. Arkansas
• Notre Dame -19.5 vs. Syracuse. Yes Im picking ND to cover 20 pts! Hard to believe.
• UW -7.5 @ Wazzu - the saddest Apple Cup EVER!? Undoubtedly. Tyronne Willinghams last game thank christ. 
• TTech +7 @ OU!?!?!?! Really? REALLY?! 7 Pts!? No fucking way. Im honestly shocked at this line.
• Spartans +14.5 @ Penn St. REALLYY?!?!?!?!? No fucking way. Im honestly surprised. 
• Virginia +2.5 vs Clemson
• Stanford +9 @ Cal - the Big Game should be good this year
• Utah -6.5 vs. BYU - Go Utes. Fuck BYU - worst college in the country. 
• Oregon St. +3 @ Arizona - this is for the Rose Bowl Kids. They are not going to fuck up in Tucson.

NFL City Time Boys City

• Add 1 Win for Monday Night. Never trust the Bills. Looked AWFUL and almost still won.
• Pit -10.5 vs. Cinci - Thanksgiving -1 week special. Strange that Pitt suddenly looks almost mediocre. But you can't argue that their D is tough like crazy tough. If the game is fixed like last week what can you do. I picked em. It cost me. Fuck it.
• Houston +3 @ Cleveland - I can't tell if it's the Texans, Colts, Browns or whoever that's two-faced. Well the Colts have to be. And the Browns just suck...
• KC +3 vs. Buff - KC is alive. The Bills are bad bad news. 
• Ten -4.5 vs. Jets. Very interesting matchup here. Jets look better than they really are lately though while the Titans continue to prove they are rock fucking solid.
• Pats +2 @ Miami - not even Cedric Cobbs will stop Bellicek her in a revenge game for the meanest coach in sport.
• Dallas -10.5 vs. SF - even though i honestly believe SF's offense is better than the Skins'
• Tampa -8.5 @ Detroit - dont like this one. D Cullpep is one of the daftest but also wiliest QBs out theya.
• Baltimore -1.5 vs Philly - like this one
• Chi -8.5 @ STL - I have no clue here. Bears could be one of the worst teams after all but I guess STL gave up.
• Minny +2.5 @ Jax - After last week Jax might roll over. They aint makin the playoffs...
• Carolina +1 @ Atl - coming into last week I would have taken Atlanta. Despite Carolina being really shitty actually I don't think ATL is really all we thought it was for a few weeks. Denver? At home? Come on. 
• Denver -9.5 vs. Oakland - duh.
• Wash -3.5 @ Seattle. The battle of Seattle.... Washington that is. You know, I doubt Zorn will call plays that allow the horrid Camble and the super overrated Camble to even score 4 pts. But if they have to win 4-0 they will. 
• Giants -3 @ Az - Giants have been to this stadium before right?
• San Diego -2.5 vs. Colts. Fuck the Colts. I hope they miss the playoffs along with the Pats.
• NO -2.5 vs. GB. 

Football City featuring Tim Donaghy's brother, Mike Singleterry Donaghy

From Last week, I lost the Cards MNF game... and now...

Jets +3 @ Foxboro - this is a big game where Mangini finally makes the crossest coach in sports, Bill Asshole, start to feel insecure. As long as Brett doesn't throw 3 INTs I like this. At least it'll be close right? 1 Blunt Pick.

Atl -5.5 vs. Denver - Denver is so poor and will give up lots of points. 5.5 is a lot for a team like Atlanta but how else could it turn out. Atlanta will win by 7 at a minimum. 3 Blunt Pick.

Miami -10.5 vs Oaktown - Miami's offense isn't great. But on the road, Oakland's putrescent offense will be lucky to score 3 pts. Ricky Williams alone will outscore Oaks by 14. 2 Blunt Pick.

Indi -8.5 vs. Houston - Indiapolis seems to finally have hit their stride while Houston rots. Blowout city. Pick of the week right here.  Pick Of the Week. 4 Blunt Pick.

Tenn -3 @ Jax - Jeff Fisher's boring squad has to lose sometime this season right? Actually let's take a peak at their schedule... after this one and the Jets, they have Detroit, Cleveland and Houston! Wow. Shoudl be undefeated until the Pits and Colts games at the end of the year by which time they will have clinched home field. Will Jeff Fish shut down ala Dungy and lose in the first round? No way, he's way to smart for that. Will Tennessee just get tired on their own and fade down the stretch? Perhaps. This week though, although Jax really woke up last week, is not going to be any different than before. D Gerrard, the fattest QB in the NFL, is hot. But Jax's season is OVER. 2 Blunt Pick.

New Orleans -5 @ Kc - I'm not sure what to make of this. New Orleans consistently underperforms. To me they should be capable of beating any team in the NFL on a given day but they just never do. I guess the loss of Bush really hurt them. This one seems like such an obvious laugher but KC is better in the last couple weeks. I can't take KC though, and I won't here. Can't believe Herman Warfare isn't fired yet. 1 Blunt Pick.

Detroit +14.5 @ Carolina - wait ive picked 6 faves in a row.... Ok Im switching this. I'll take Detroit. Detroit is going to have a decent game eventually, even though the Culppeper experiment was already given up on, my and Carolina's offense might still be slow from last week's shit show. I don't think there's any argument against my belief that Carolina's performance was the single worst performance by a winning team in NFL histroy, and they won by more than a TD. Don't pull that shit on detroit. How does Carolina get to play the 2 worst teams in the NFL in the last 5 years back to back? 1 Blunt Pick. (As all picks should be with such a huge spread.)

Tampa -4 vs. Minny - the DFAMWI pick o' the week. 1 Blunt Pick. 

Pitt -4 vs. SD - From earlier:  "obviously this isnt going to work, picking all faves. We'll have to make some changes. Let me watch some highlights and get back to you later in the week when I pick for the other games where the lines aint yet just quite released....." Still I can't change this pick. 1 Blunt Pick.

Eagles -9 @ Bengals - another favorite here. Hmmmmm. I was doing so good picking bad teams to cover earlier in the year. Maybe Vegas got wind of this and shrank lines. I just can't pick any of these dogs this week. Cinci is not going to get up for this challenge. Isn't Palmer out for the season or something? Did Cinci have a bye this past week? they are horrible!!!!!! 2 Blunt Pick.

Giants -5.5 vs Ravens - ah another attractive favorite. I bet the GMen are crushing the spread this year, lemme check... Ah yes, 7-2, as are the Ravens. Wow. Hmmm. Take the GMen here. Ravens to me still aren't for real. But wait, they have to be. Ok, let's look at their schedule... Quite an enigma. Blown out by the Colts. Barely losing to the Titans and Steelers. Then crushing tons of other teams. This is an easy one here. GMen. Or is it? Could it be close? This is the game of the week.  1 Blunt Pick.

Rams +6.5 @ 9ers - Singleterry has a team full of losers and he is an enthusiastic idiot. I couldn't believe the atrocious lack of game management he displayed last week. It was embarrasing. Rams are terrible but the Jets game was a fluke. 9ers might cover here despite themselves but good luck trying. 1 Blunt Pick. 

Cards -3 @ Hawks. Hawks, hawks, hawks. How has the spread treated you this year? i bet you're awful against it, slighted as you are even when you're good... Ah, they're 4-5 and im impressed. Hassleback is back. Branch is back. They will lose anyway. Im desparate for Dogs and Im not taking the Hawks at home. 

Redskins +2 vs. Boys - I need a dog. Ill take a home dog here even though I continue to think Zorn's kids are extremely overrated. Jason Camble got fucking destroyed by a Pitts team that can't beat Indi and might not be that good. Well, their defense is undeniably good but still... 1 Blunt Pick. 

and you need only look below to see that I totally did not see the Bears blowout coming so that's a -1....

Thus counting last MNF and not this pending one, this week was 7-9. A down week was bound to come and 7-9 isn't a disaster. 

Total so far then is... 41-33-1.  This week was goofy. I didn't like most of the matchups and the results were all over the board, SU and ATS. Let's see if my high confidence picks, as now rated by the blunt system, faired... I only rated 4 games over zero confidence. Of the two one I was most confident of, ATL over Denver and Indi over Houston, I got SMOOSHED. Oh well, so much for the blunt system. I smoked it, it's gone. 

And now to college.Remember, I went all out and just bet tons of games hoping to be a luckbox and get above 500. Little analysis went into these picks. Let's see what happened.  33-37 has turned into...

• Miami -4 vs. V Tech - hoping for Miami SU win to power UNC to a potential ACC championship. This is a good matchup. Freakish, and weird, but still too good to deny, like this, and I don't ever usually link to anything. 
• Indiana +34 @ Penn St.
• Northwestern +3 @ Michigan - as I suspected before I looked, UMich is dreadful against the spread. I bet on most all the top 25 games and I'm not strategic since this is just for fun. If I was, this is the kind of place you can make a killing on college football - fan bases must bet a lot blindly on college football beacuse certain teams are just awful ATS in NCFB. 
• Minnesota +13.5 @ Wisc.
• Wake -4 @ NC St. - Wake is currently at the top of the ACC. 
• Duke +11.5 @ Clemson
• UNC -2.5 @ Maryland
• Navy +3 vs. Notre Dame
• Miss St. +19 @ Bama
• Kentucky -5 vs. Vandy
• Texas -13 @ Kansas - fatso Mangini has lost control of his post-Orangle Bowl ship in Lawrence.
• Mizzou -26.5 @ Iowa St. Cyclones, Ames, IA
• Cal +2 @ Beaves
• Oregon -3.5 vs. AZ
• UCLA -7.5 @ UW
• Auburn +8 vs. Georgia
• BYU -4 @ Airforce
• Stanford +23 vs. USC
• Ok St. -17.5 @ Colorado

Wow the ACC fucked me up. It's the conference I've watched most widely this year and I lost each matchup I bet on. Fucking zany mediocre conference. 10-9 making 43-46.

Stay tuned for picks for next week today.

Bonus Pick - louts of the NFC Norriss

Somehow I didn't pick Chicago @ Greenbay. GB is -3.5 I noticed on ESPN's score page they have something called the "In" Line that is supposed to be some non-gambling related spread? Interesting cause they have this game at even. I'm too lazy to look if the rest of the spread-like figures are anywhere near vegas or onlines numbers. Ok, let's do one more for curiosities sake - nope, both games i surveyed has espn picking the favorites on the line but by far less. Interesting.

In any case I don't like this game at all. It feels like every fucking week at the sportsbar I go to I get stuck watching these two teams with all the NFC North rowdies who somehow I've found although I'm somewhere in Los Carolinas. They cheer voraciously, obnoxiously, drunkenly, although usually one of the teams is playing Detroit and they don't, (read: shouldn't) even get a sweat. It's also 1pm, I'm usually severely hungover, and wanting to hear sound on a game that actually matters. I've seen these fucking two teams play a lot in the past couple weeks and I just have no fucking clue how to pick this. Gut instinct says to take da Bears? Is Orton coming back this week? Does it matter? Let me take a quick look at the Bodog matchup page here... doo-d00-doo... Why does the font change randomly on blogger?... Oh indeed, how could I forget. Last week was the Minny game where Frerotte kept a putrid GB in the game but then Minny won anyway by 1. Similarly the Bears did decently, but did not defend the spread, against the Titans in Chicago. Well... I guess I still like Chicago. Both teams are roughly .500 ATS. Overall GB just doesn't seem to be playing as well lately. You know, both teams seem really equal in way - suck ass against detroit, lose equally to Titans, etc. But GB, really, just really doesn't look like a good team at all. Who have they beat? No one since the Suckhawks, and that is no one at all.

Chicago +3.5 @ GB - 2 blunt pick.

Worst Commercial Ever

As I sit watching sports all day on DirecTV I see the same fucking commercials. Over. And over. And Over again. I criticize most heavily - outloud. I hate almost all of them. Yet there is one commercial, one disgusting commercial, which truly enrages me. It shames me. It defeats me. It sours me - a lot.

Garmin. A Garmin commercial for GPS. It's Xmas themed. Stupid christmas carrol in my face. Fuck this commercial. Fuck it so much. The lady's singing voice makes my blood boil. It embarrases me for life. End it all now. If my finger was on the button, I'd have to push it if this commercial came on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXL1Nfe_Cxk - I won't embed it out of respect for this blog. Searching on Youtube made me realize they had this type of commercial last year too, I remember it now. Last year's version was similar but not quite as bad owing to the different female vocal track this year.

NFL

Didn't get around to picking all NFL yet, and I didn't like the pic I made and didn't embellish them. So let's continue the wonderful run of the last 2 weeks. I'm adding a feature to this week since I like so many fucking favorites. Please note the confidence factor related "blunt" rating. 4 blunts is an extremely confident pick that might not even come around some weeks, 2 blunts and average, difficult pick, 1 blunt a tossup/avoid pick. 3 blunts is a very solid pick. I must, have to, need to, ween myself from some of these favorites and change picks despite my best instincts. 

Jets +3 @ Foxboro - this is a big game where Mangini finally makes the crossest coach in sports, Bill Asshole, start to feel insecure. As long as Brett doesn't throw 3 INTs I like this. At least it'll be close right? 1 Blunt Pick.

Atl -5.5 vs. Denver - Denver is so poor and will give up lots of points. 5.5 is a lot for a team like Atlanta but how else could it turn out. Atlanta will win by 7 at a minimum. 3 Blunt Pick.

Miami -10.5 vs Oaktown - Miami's offense isn't great. But on the road, Oakland's putrescent offense will be lucky to score 3 pts. Ricky Williams alone will outscore Oaks by 14. 2 Blunt Pick.

Indi -8.5 vs. Houston - Indiapolis seems to finally have hit their stride while Houston rots. Blowout city. Pick of the week right here.  Pick Of the Week. 4 Blunt Pick.

Tenn -3 @ Jax - Jeff Fisher's boring squad has to lose sometime this season right? Actually let's take a peak at their schedule... after this one and the Jets, they have Detroit, Cleveland and Houston! Wow. Shoudl be undefeated until the Pits and Colts games at the end of the year by which time they will have clinched home field. Will Jeff Fish shut down ala Dungy and lose in the first round? No way, he's way to smart for that. Will Tennessee just get tired on their own and fade down the stretch? Perhaps. This week though, although Jax really woke up last week, is not going to be any different than before. D Gerrard, the fattest QB in the NFL, is hot. But Jax's season is OVER. 2 Blunt Pick.

New Orleans -5 @ Kc - I'm not sure what to make of this. New Orleans consistently underperforms. To me they should be capable of beating any team in the NFL on a given day but they just never do. I guess the loss of Bush really hurt them. This one seems like such an obvious laugher but KC is better in the last couple weeks. I can't take KC though, and I won't here. Can't believe Herman Warfare isn't fired yet. 1 Blunt Pick.

Detroit +14.5 @ Carolina - wait ive picked 6 faves in a row.... Ok Im switching this. I'll take Detroit. Detroit is going to have a decent game eventually, even though the Culppeper experiment was already given up on, my and Carolina's offense might still be slow from last week's shit show. I don't think there's any argument against my belief that Carolina's performance was the single worst performance by a winning team in NFL histroy, and they won by more than a TD. Don't pull that shit on detroit. How does Carolina get to play the 2 worst teams in the NFL in the last 5 years back to back? 1 Blunt Pick. (As all picks should be with such a huge spread.)

Tampa -4 vs. Minny - the DFAMWI pick o' the week. 1 Blunt Pick. 

Pitt -4 vs. SD - From earlier:  "obviously this isnt going to work, picking all faves. We'll have to make some changes. Let me watch some highlights and get back to you later in the week when I pick for the other games where the lines aint yet just quite released....." Still I can't change this pick. 1 Blunt Pick.

Eagles -9 @ Bengals - another favorite here. Hmmmmm. I was doing so good picking bad teams to cover earlier in the year. Maybe Vegas got wind of this and shrank lines. I just can't pick any of these dogs this week. Cinci is not going to get up for this challenge. Isn't Palmer out for the season or something? Did Cinci have a bye this past week? they are horrible!!!!!! 2 Blunt Pick.

Giants -5.5 vs Ravens - ah another attractive favorite. I bet the GMen are crushing the spread this year, lemme check... Ah yes, 7-2, as are the Ravens. Wow. Hmmm. Take the GMen here. Ravens to me still aren't for real. But wait, they have to be. Ok, let's look at their schedule... Quite an enigma. Blown out by the Colts. Barely losing to the Titans and Steelers. Then crushing tons of other teams. This is an easy one here. GMen. Or is it? Could it be close? This is the game of the week.  1 Blunt Pick.

Rams +6.5 @ 9ers - Singleterry has a team full of losers and he is an enthusiastic idiot. I couldn't believe the atrocious lack of game management he displayed last week. It was embarrasing. Rams are terrible but the Jets game was a fluke. 9ers might cover here despite themselves but good luck trying. 1 Blunt Pick. 

Cards -3 @ Hawks. Hawks, hawks, hawks. How has the spread treated you this year? i bet you're awful against it, slighted as you are even when you're good... Ah, they're 4-5 and im impressed. Hassleback is back. Branch is back. They will lose anyway. Im desparate for Dogs and Im not taking the Hawks at home. 

Redskins +2 vs. Boys - I need a dog. Ill take a home dog here even though I continue to think Zorn's kids are extremely overrated. Jason Camble got fucking destroyed by a Pitts team that can't beat Indi and might not be that good. Well, their defense is undeniably good but still... 1 Blunt Pick. 

Browns +5 @ Bills - ditto. Bills are HORRIBLE. Quinn looked good last week. 2 Blunt Pick. 

NFL Killing Continues

I am doing some sick things to the spread lately in the NFL. If real money was at stake and I was betting 100 pts a game or something I'd have enough for a new flat screen and some beer.  Considering the nature of the spread, I'm doing outlandishly well, amazing on the scale of the other-wordly size of the boobies on the Sports By Brooks Girls. 

Coming into last week I was 25-20-1 afer a nice 9-2 last week. Not quite as good this week but still, with 9-4, up to a sweet looking 34-24-1. 

Redskins -2 vs. Steelers - I need Randle-El to come through with 3 fantasy pts tonight. Maybe he'll get 20 yds on a reverse and a few nice receptions. Prolly not. A TD would be golden. 

Broncs +3 @ Browns - what a stinker to open up TNF. I don't like this pick. I have 0 confidence in either team. Could the AFC West actually be worse than the NFC West? Wait til the end of the season to mock me for saying that. 

Detroit +7 vs. Jax - you just keep thinking Jax will turn it around. I haven't seen them play this year. Detroit might sneak out there first win here, or they might lose by 50. Another line I really don't like. 

NE -4 vs Buf

New Orleans Pick Em @ ATL - I like this line. Falcons O cannot keep up. 

St Louis +8 @ Jets. AFC East is so week this year it's silly. 

Seattle +9.5 @ Miami. Ditto. Sea is terrible on the road, particularly the East Coast. And we don't need to get into a discussion about the general shortcomings they have faced this season but I just don't see Miami blowing them out. No fucking way. 

GB +2 @ Minny - the DFAMWI Pick O' the Week. 

Carolina -9.5 @ Oakland. Did you fucking see what ATL did to the pathetic raiders? I love this line. LOVE it. 9.5 on the road is really tough in the NFL, rarely happens, but I still love this line like I will love it when Romeo Crenel chokes on a donut during a game. 

Kansas City +14 @ SD - I herm shows balls and pulls out some nothing-to-lose trick plays again this week, SD will have a tought time blowing them out by 15 or more. Maybe not though, this pick is subject to change. KC showed me last week that they are HORRIBLE even in fucking up the spread as they did to my advantage.

Giants +2.5 @ Philly - love this line too. Fuck fatso Reid - terrible father he is.

Baltimore +1.5 @ Houston 

Titan -3 @ Bear f/Rex Grosso-mosso's Pussyboys and my least favorite (increasingly) NFL coach Lover Smythe (Steve Smith NYG 2nd cousin thrice removed)

I'll chalk tonights pick onto next week...

Cards -9.5 vs. SF 49ers

and make a few more... Since I have been doing so good the last 2 weeks, lets take a quick look at how my victories broke down. Again, I was 18-6 over the last 2 weeks. 

The six losses ATS?: 

• home dogs - 1
• road dogs - 1
• home faves - 3
• road faves - 0 
• road pick ems - 1

A nice spread of losses generally but indicative of an overestimation of the home underdog to cover. But wait, not a single home dog did cover this week... so grain of salt... or?

The eighteen wins ATS?: 

• home dogs - 2
• road dogs - 8
• home faves - 3
• road faves - 5

Road dogs doing good... home dogs not so good. Looks like Vegas is overestimating home field advantage. I'm going to ignore this analysis for my upcoming picks.

Worth noting that in the games over the last 2 weeks on which I bet on faves were 10-13 in general against dogs, with one pick em game going to the home squad...

• Jets +3 @ Foxboro - this is a big game where Mangini finally makes the crossest coach in sports, Bill Asshole, start to feel insecure. 
• Atl -5.5 vs. Denver
• Miami -10.5 vs Oaktown
• Indi -8.5 vs. Houston
• Tenn -3 @ Jax
• New Orleans -5 @ Kc
• Carolina -14.5 vs. Detroit - wait ive picked 6 faves in a row....
• Tampa -4 vs. Minny
• Pitt -4 vs. SD - obviously this isnt going to work, picking all faves. We'll have to make some changes. Let me watch some highlights and get back to you later in the week when I pick for the other games where the lines aint yet just quite released. 

ncfb crisis

Wow what a shit week in NCFB. Was was 26-29-0, now 33-37-0. 

• Northwestern +11 vs. Ohio St.
• Duke -4.5 vs. NC St.
• Virginia +4 @ Wake
• G Tech +4.5 @ UNC
• Texas Tech -3 vs. Oklahoma St.
• Florida -23.5 @ Vandy
• Georgia -10 @ Kentucky
• Oklahoma -23 @ Texas A & M
• K St +26 @ Mizzou
• Az St. -14 @ UW
• Arizona -40 @ Wazzu
• Pitt -6.5 vs. Louisville
• Oregon -13 vs. Stanford
• Bama -3.5 @ LSU
• Penn St. -7.5 @ Iowa

Here's next week picks already. I need to bet on a shit load of games as the season waynes hoping to recoup losses. If I had an intern I'd have them tally up my records ATS per conference and see which one I seemed to know best. 

• Miami -4 vs. V Tech - hoping for Miami SU win to power UNC to a potential ACC championship. This is a good matchup. Freakish, and weird, but still too good to deny, like this, and I don't ever usually link to anything. 
• Indiana +34 @ Penn St.
• Northwestern +3 @ Michigan - as I suspected before I looked, UMich is dreadful against the spread. I bet on most all the top 25 games and I'm not strategic since this is just for fun. If I was, this is the kind of place you can make a killing on college football - fan bases must bet a lot blindly on college football beacuse certain teams are just awful ATS in NCFB. 
• Minnesota +13.5 @ Wisc.
• Wake -4 @ NC St. - Wake is currently at the top of the ACC. 
• Duke +11.5 @ Clemson
• UNC -2.5 @ Maryland
• Navy +3 vs. Notre Dame
• Miss St. +19 @ Bama
• Kentucky -5 vs. Vandy
• Texas -13 @ Kansas - fatso Mangini has lost control of his post-Orangle Bowl ship in Lawrence.
• Mizzou -26.5 @ Iowa St. Cyclones, Ames, IA
• Cal +2 @ Beaves
• Oregon -3.5 vs. AZ
• UCLA -7.5 @ UW
• Auburn +8 vs. Georgia
• BYU -4 @ Airforce
• Stanford +23 vs. USC
• Ok St. -17.5 @ Colorado

College Football Viewers Cheat Sheet

There's a shit load of games on today, mostly at 12 noon, and most horribly crappy, but a shit load nonetheless. Let's wade through this muck with a handy cheat sheet, much like the sheet Tim Donaghy must have used to cheat while mis-officiating basketball games to win a couple bucks. I'll do you one better. Don't go poppin' pills like Isiah, just drink heavily like Jon Daly, and watch a day long marathon of NCFB culminating in Gundy @ Lubbock. Could be a big trap game for Graham Harrell and the national darlings... National darlings for 1 short week?

Time Slot 1 - Noonish - x

• Choice 1: G Tech @ NC - ACC country on Raycom - this is a crucial battle in a leveled-off ACC. I took G Tech +4.5 but I think NC can pull it off straight up. They could even smash the spread.
  
• Choice 2: Ohio St @ Northwester - ESPN2 - could be an upset? I took NW +11.

Time Slot 2 - 330ish -x

• Choice 1: Bama @ LSU - CBS - I took Bama -3.5 but LSU could have something up their sleeves for Saban. Really though, do many if any of LSU's current players even remember Nick @ Death Valley? No. LSU could get run over but this should be a competitive game. If the SEC is as lame as the Georgia Florida laugher showed last weekend this could be gross like Charlie Weiss' FUPA. (Yes, I've stopped making new jokes, I just refer to Charlie Weiss' FUPA in any way I can. Perhaps I'll change the address of this blog to CharlieWeissFUPA.blogspot.com).
  
• Choice 2: Stanford @ Oregon - Fox Sports National (This wins out over Penn St. @ Iowa cause Penn St. just will win by 50 and I haven't really watched Pac 10 all year.)
  

Time Slot 3 - Early Evening

• Games showing the 1.5 hr or so period between the above games and the below game include Mizzou vs. K St. on Fox Sports & UTEP vs. LA Lafayette on MASN (home of the WORST standard def resolution ive ever seen on my DirecTv).
  

Time Slow 4 - Texas Tech vs. Okie St. on ABC, 9pm EST.

Bonus Filler Time if a Game Goes Laugher:

• NASCAR Busch series @ Phoenix -430pm-7pm - I think there might still be some competition between Boyer and Edwards for the Busch title, but I'm not sure.
  
• NBA League Pass - is that what it's called? I think DirecTV is showing all the NBA games for free for this week or something. Could come in handy around 7pm even though I hate the NBA.

Christ... now I just wish I had some weed! Lots of it. Like Santonio Holmes. But I'll be lazy and watch the games, all of them, anyway.

Bonus Picks like a Bonus Free Taco in a Taco Pyramid Scheme Founded by Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weiss

It's not his call, but will Obama sign a potential bill to legalize internet poker again, and perhaps even sports gambling? Do I care? Wait, homeboy pictured above isn't Barrack? I have to talk to my sources.

• Utah +2 vs. TCU
• VTech -3 vs. Maryland - thursday night special

• Titan -3 @ Bear f/Rex Grosso-mosso's Pussyboys and my least favorite (increasingly) NFL coach Lover Smythe (Steve Smith NYG 2nd cousin thrice removed)
• Cards -9.5 vs. SF 49ers

For Shame

Been letting the blog slide a bit as I've been concentrating on fantasy football and actually watching lots of it rather than just writing hollowly about it. I never got around to picking the Monday Night Matchup nor the matchups this week that either of last Monday Nights teams had this week. It was a short slate, especially in the college games; I'll include tonight's matchup in next week's tally. 

Coming into this week:

• NFL: 16-18-1
• College:  23-26-0

• Browns -1 vs. Joe Flacco (who is the Baltimore coach, Jim Harbaugh?, wtf is that?)
• KC +8 vs. TB - the DFAMWI Pick O' the Week
  
• Bills -5 vs. Jets
• Cards -3 @ Rams
• Lions +14 @ Orton's Kidz - Spite Pick O' the Week
  
• Vikings -4.5 vs Texans
• Benglas +8 vs Jax
• Dolphins +3.5 @ Broncs
• Ny Giants -7.5 vs Dallas
• Philly -7 @ Hawks
• Atlanta -2.5 @ Oakland

What a succesful week. I wrote earlier I was counting on lots of shitty teams to perform well ATS and they did. Bills keep letting me down and those pesky Ravens had their twice-decade game where they scored shitloads of points, (see Troy what's-his-name winning 61-60 over the Hawks a couple years back or something like that when Baltimore had the worst offense in football) but other than that, a brilliant week @ 9-2-0.  Total is now up to a nice looking 25-20-1. 

• TTech +7 vs. T - love this matchup in Lubbock
• BC -5.5 vs. Clems. and ghost of Bowden
• Stanford -30.5 vs. Wash St
  
• UW +44 @ USC
• Bama -24 vs. Arkansas St.
• Georgia +5.5 "vs." Florida (In Jacksonville)

Didnt get around to picking really this week. Wazzu is a pathetic 0-8 ATS this year. The bookmakers just can't fathom how truly horrible they are. Just when you think a scub Pac 10 team can't put up 50 pts on Wazzu when shutting them out again, they do. UW isn't much better @ 1-7 ATS.  3-3 this week. 26-29-0, underperforming badly. I don't spend enough time on NCFB picks and I make awkward numbers of them and am not selective enough. I'm positive I can do much better. 

Bonus MNF pick plus picks on lines for next week already out (subject to change). Oh wow, Thursday night football starts this week. Not that I don't want an excuse to get drunk at a bar, but now I have NFL network and it might actually come in handy. I cannot stand to watch it for any other reason. Rich Eisen is 100% intolerable. He just sounds angry and pissed off the entire time, so does he ooze with bitter sarcasm. Dion Sanders is a little better but such a flake. Poor Steve Mariucci gets run over by both of the douchebags when making any attempt to seem even half-way normal. 

• Redskins -2 vs. Steelers - I need Randle-El to come through with 3 fantasy pts tonight. Maybe he'll get 20 yds on a reverse and a few nice receptions. Prolly not. A TD would be golden. 
• Broncs +3 @ Browns - what a stinker to open up TNF. I don't like this pick. I have 0 confidence in either team. Could the AFC West actually be worse than the NFC West? Wait til the end of the season to mock me for saying that. 
• Detroit +7 vs. Jax - you just keep thinking Jax will turn it around. I haven't seen them play this year. Detroit might sneak out there first win here, or they might lose by 50. Another line I really don't like. 
• NE -4 vs Buf
• New Orleans Pick Em @ ATL - I like this line. Falcons O cannot keep up. 
• St Louis +8 @ Jets. AFC East is so week this year it's silly. 
• Seattle +9.5 @ Miami. Ditto. Sea is terrible on the road, particularly the East Coast. And we don't need to get into a discussion about the general shortcomings they have faced this season but I just don't see Miami blowing them out. No fucking way. 
• GB +2 @ Minny - the DFAMWI Pick O' the Week. 
• Carolina -9.5 @ Oakland. Did you fucking see what ATL did to the pathetic raiders? I love this line. LOVE it. 9.5 on the road is really tough in the NFL, rarely happens, but I still love this line like I will love it when Romeo Crenel chokes on a donut during a game. 
• Kansas City +14 @ SD - I herm shows balls and pulls out some nothing-to-lose trick plays again this week, SD will have a tought time blowing them out by 15 or more. Maybe not though, this pick is subject to change. KC showed me last week that they are HORRIBLE even in fucking up the spread as they did to my advantage.
• Giants +2.5 @ Philly - love this line too. Fuck fatso Reid - terrible father he is.
• Baltimore +1.5 @ Houston 

And to the FBS or whatever it's called:

• Northwestern +11 vs. Ohio St.
• Duke -4.5 vs. NC St. 
• Virginia +4 @ Wake
• G Tech +4.5 @ UNC
• Texas Tech -3 vs. Oklahoma St.
• Florida -23.5 @ Vandy
• Georgia -10 @ Kentucky
• Oklahoma -23 @ Texas A & M
• K St +26 @ Mizzou
• Az St. -14 @ UW
• Arizona -40 @ Wazzu
• Pitt -6.5 vs. Louisville 
• Oregon -13 vs. Stanford
• Bama -3.5 @ LSU
• Penn St. -7.5 @ Iowa

Beer Commercials

I hate Scrubs. (the show), but mostly cause of Zach Braff (sp?). That older doctor guy currently on the Miller Lite Commercials with the whole "More Taste Leage" bit owns the ads these days. I hate Miller Lite quite a bit, by far, so that's saying something ,overcoming bias and all. The Coors Lite, which is my favorite Lite, silly coach ads are great but they could be so much better. Great premise, poor execution like the KC Chiefs? Nahhhhh..............